TENDENCIES OF TIME DISTRIBUTION OF CLIMATE INDICATORS IN THE IVANO-FRANKIVSK REGION
The purpose of the study is to establish trends and patterns of spatial and temporal distribution of climatic indicators in the Ivano-Frankivsk region by statistical processing of meteorological observations. With the help of the software product Caterpillar SSA 3.40, the method of singular spectral analysis was tested for forecast models of the dynamics of the hydrothermal factor in the Ivano-Frankivsk region and deviations from the norm of the total annual amount of precipitation and average annual temperature of air according to the meteorological stations of Ivano-Frankivsk region for the period of 1990-2018. for the forecast perspective up to 2028.
The novelty of scientific work is that it has further developed the research of trends and patterns of climate change for the territory of Ivano-Frankivsk oblast by establishing a forecasting dynamics of temperature and lunar rainfall data, based on the processing of multi-year meteorological observations of meteorological stations in Yaremche, Pozhzhevskaya, Kolomyia, Ivano -Frankivsk and the Valley.
The predicted models of deviation from the norm of climatic indicators for the period up to 2028, constructed by the method of singular spectral analysis, prove that global warming of the climate for the territory of the Ivano-Frankivsk region will increase the temperature indexes, increase the amount of precipitation and reduce the hydrothermal coefficient. The hydrothermal indicator has a gradual tendency to decrease, which confirms the general climate changes in the Ivano-Frankivsk region. However, the values of SCC for the forecast period will remain much higher, and therefore drought in the Ivano-Frankivsk region is not threatened.
Research results can be used for predictive estimations of changes in climatic parameters within the region in order to make decisions for adaptation to global climate change in the educational process.
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