Prerequisite of use of basin principle of ecological and geological risk of the developing of landslide processes within the Prut river
Keywords:Landslides; basin; sub-pool; factor characteristics; risks; estimation
The study of ecological and geological risks within the administrative complexes does not give a clear understanding of the impact of landslides on the environment and economic activity. The use of geoinformation technologies for risks modeling greatly simplifies the identification of local zones of landslide development and their ecological-geological assessment. A new GIS-based approach for basin-based risk assessment of individual areas is proposed. A mapping and attribution database of geological, geomorphological and landscape factors has been formed. This allowed for spatial analysis of landslide activity within individual sub-basins of the Prut River Basin, based on the spatial distribution of landslides and their localization in the river network. Statistical analysis of the data was performed, which allowed to substantiate the choice of factor characteristics for the assessment of ecological and geological risks. The integral index is calculated and the ecological-geological risk assessment is calculated at each point of occurrence with interpolation within the Prut River sub-pool. A mapping model of relief, a map of probabilities of activation and development of landslides based on a complex selection of natural and man-made factors and a map of ecological and geological risks of development of landslides within the sub-pool of the Prut River are constructed. The simulation results show that the basin principle of risk assessment significantly identifies areas with the highest probability of negative impact on the population living within sub-basins. The highest risk is observed in the areas of the upper part of the Prut basin, areas with active economic activity, with sub-pool distribution, which categorically confirms the basic morphometric characteristics of the sub-pool, its geology and geomorphology as a potentially dangerous zone for the development and activation of landslides.
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